Q3FY24 GDP Data Analysis: India's FY24 GDP Pegged at 7.3%
The Q3FY24 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for India is set to be released today, with expectations of a slowdown from the robust 7.6% growth in the previous quarter. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintains a disinflationary stance while emphasizing the dual goals of achieving a 4% inflation target and supporting economic growth.
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FY24 GDP Growth Estimates
The Centre for Statistical Office (CSO) forecasts India's FY24 real GDP growth at 7.3%, exceeding market expectations and RBI's seven per cent estimate. The driving force behind this growth is a robust 10.3% expansion in gross fixed capital formation, while private consumption, constituting 57% of the GDP, is expected to grow modestly at 4.4%. Nominal GDP growth is estimated at 8.9%, below the FY24 budget assumption of 10.5%, primarily due to deflation in wholesale prices. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is pegged at 6.9%, marginally lower than the previous fiscal year, with agriculture facing challenges from unfavourable climate conditions.
Growth Dynamics in H2FY24
The CSO's FY24 estimate suggests a moderation in growth to 7% in the second half, lower than the 7.7% in H1FY24. Investments are a key driver, expected to grow at 11% in the second half, offsetting subdued growth in government and private consumption. Concerns about growth centre around tightened financial conditions and weakness in rural demand.
Street Estimates
Contrary to the CSO estimate, the State Bank of India (SBI) anticipates Q3FY24 GDP growth at 6.8%, with the potential to reach seven per cent in case of downward revisions in the year-ago period figures. SBI highlights a slight contraction in government spending impacting GVA growth in the quarter.
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Expert Opinions
Experts share diverse views on Q3FY24 GDP growth. Vaibhav Shah, Fund Manager at Torus ORO PMS, expects signs of deceleration but is confident in achieving an overall real growth of seven percent, positioning India among the fastest-growing economies. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, predicts a moderation of six per cent in Q3FY24 GDP growth due to lower kharif crop output and industrial sector slowdown. She anticipates continued ease in Q4FY24, attributing the decline to tepid government capex in the run-up to the general elections in May 2024.
Conclusion
As India awaits the Q3FY24 GDP data, the diverse estimates and expert opinions suggest a nuanced economic landscape. While strong investment growth provides momentum, concerns linger around consumption, rural demand, and potential downward revisions. The unfolding economic scenario underscores the need for vigilant policy measures to balance growth and inflation targets.
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